Sunday, July 11, 2010
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Why I'm not blogging here anymore
For some time, I've been absent from this page. This is because I'm now blogging at Inside Catholic, run by the former editors of Crisis Magazine. It's a group blog, actually, with about ten of us blogging near-daily (or several times daily, if we're inspired). Politics, Catholic spirituality, movies, and odd little details. Very fast-moving.
If you want to see just my blogs, without everyone else's, click here.
Hope to see you at Inside Catholic!
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
What I'm giving up for Lent
The snooze button.
If this isn't purgative, nothing is.
The challenge, of course, is to do it cheerfully instead of spitefully. Nothing like those Lenten sacrifices that get us really grumpy, right?
I'm also giving up comics for lent in favor of redoubling my efforts to get through St. Faustina's Divine Mercy in My Soul (which I'm loving, but which doesn't, for some reason, hold the same instant appeal as a really cool 1960's Superman or 1970's Marvel Two-in-One comic book, not to mention 1920's Popeye stories). Again, the key is to do it cheerfully instead of resentfully...
Friday, February 1, 2008
Matchups
Okay, now that I've dissected all four major candidates, here's what I see. This DOES NOT COUNT Vice Presidential candidates (for which a fascinating list of possibilities can be found here).
While looking at my predictions, keep in mind that I'd officially predicted that Romney would drop out if he lost both Iowa and New Hampshire, and I was wrong about that.
Clinton v. McCain: McCain wins, with virtually the same electoral map as 2004. Not so much that people love McCain, but that they're too nervous about Clinton.
Clinton v. Romney: Toss-up; too hard to call. What do you do when no one (except a small 20% base on either side) likes either candidate? We're back to Bush v. Kerry, each side playing to the base instead of the center, leaving most Americans disspirited.
Obama v. McCain: Obama. Hit the American people with the choices of either hope or truth? Hope wins every time. (That's not a knock on Obama; it's just part of their slogans.) But it'd be a great race, and one I'd love to watch.
Obama v. Romney: Obama in a landslide that includes many states from the South and the Southwest, breaking up the electoral map the Republicans had held for so long.
A lot could change between now and November--Vice presidential candidates, at a minimum--but this is what I see right now.
While looking at my predictions, keep in mind that I'd officially predicted that Romney would drop out if he lost both Iowa and New Hampshire, and I was wrong about that.
Clinton v. McCain: McCain wins, with virtually the same electoral map as 2004. Not so much that people love McCain, but that they're too nervous about Clinton.
Clinton v. Romney: Toss-up; too hard to call. What do you do when no one (except a small 20% base on either side) likes either candidate? We're back to Bush v. Kerry, each side playing to the base instead of the center, leaving most Americans disspirited.
Obama v. McCain: Obama. Hit the American people with the choices of either hope or truth? Hope wins every time. (That's not a knock on Obama; it's just part of their slogans.) But it'd be a great race, and one I'd love to watch.
Obama v. Romney: Obama in a landslide that includes many states from the South and the Southwest, breaking up the electoral map the Republicans had held for so long.
A lot could change between now and November--Vice presidential candidates, at a minimum--but this is what I see right now.
Handicapping Romney
Almost done!
To Romney's advantage:
He has money. Money. Money, money, money.
He immediately puts the normally Democratic-stronghold states of Michigan and Massachusetts into play.
Church of LDS members ("Mormons") would be energized by his campaign--and lemme tell you, they know how to volunteer.
He's a governor, and America likes electing governors.
He's a master of negative campaigning.
He's anti-immigrant, which seems to fit the mood of the country right now.
He has a business background, and Americans like that background when they fear that the economy is heading towards a recession.
To his disadvantage:
He's painted himself into such a hard right position that it would be extremely hard for him to swing to center attract independents.
His Church of LDS faith does make some of the Republican "core" nervous about him.
He has a well-deserved reputation as a flip-flopper, one the Democrats could (and should) capitalize on.
He has a too-polished image; one of my colleages at school refers to him as "the Ken doll" of this race.
He lacks a sense of humor, of quipping the quotable line. Politics is done in sound bites, and he doesn't have any.
He goes negative so early, so powerfully, and so repetitively that it turns some people off. (A friend asked me if I didn't like Romney because he was a Mormon; I replied, "No, I don't like him because he's a jerk!")
He's defended Bush so much that it will be easy for the Democrats to draw a connection between Bush and Romney. That's how the Democrats won House and Senate races in 2006.
The longer he runs, the more enemies he makes in the Republican party. Any favors done to him would be grudging, and that's not how elections are won.
Total handicap: -2
To Romney's advantage:
He has money. Money. Money, money, money.
He immediately puts the normally Democratic-stronghold states of Michigan and Massachusetts into play.
Church of LDS members ("Mormons") would be energized by his campaign--and lemme tell you, they know how to volunteer.
He's a governor, and America likes electing governors.
He's a master of negative campaigning.
He's anti-immigrant, which seems to fit the mood of the country right now.
He has a business background, and Americans like that background when they fear that the economy is heading towards a recession.
To his disadvantage:
He's painted himself into such a hard right position that it would be extremely hard for him to swing to center attract independents.
His Church of LDS faith does make some of the Republican "core" nervous about him.
He has a well-deserved reputation as a flip-flopper, one the Democrats could (and should) capitalize on.
He has a too-polished image; one of my colleages at school refers to him as "the Ken doll" of this race.
He lacks a sense of humor, of quipping the quotable line. Politics is done in sound bites, and he doesn't have any.
He goes negative so early, so powerfully, and so repetitively that it turns some people off. (A friend asked me if I didn't like Romney because he was a Mormon; I replied, "No, I don't like him because he's a jerk!")
He's defended Bush so much that it will be easy for the Democrats to draw a connection between Bush and Romney. That's how the Democrats won House and Senate races in 2006.
The longer he runs, the more enemies he makes in the Republican party. Any favors done to him would be grudging, and that's not how elections are won.
Total handicap: -2
Handicapping Obama
What does Barack Obama he bring to the table?
To Obama's advantage:
He is an amazing orator. If he's nominated, his acceptance speech is likely to echo in people's hearts for a long time. When even Rush Limbaugh throws compliments his way, you know we have a rare speaker.
Given the historic nature of this election, African-American turnout would be extremely high, making a big difference in "Swing" states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Additionally, his message resonates in the South, which has been out of Democratic hands lately.
He has a good "storyline" about his personal life, well-documented in his book.
He's young, which compliments his message of hope nicely.
He can raise large amounts of money.
He attracts people to vote for the first time.
He attracts votes from independents and even some Republicans.
The media's love for him to some degree insulates him from negative campaigning. He's the new teflon man.
To Obama's disadvantage:
He's from a state that's already "Blue," depriving him of a "native son" boost.
He a senator, and America doesn't like electing senators president (only twice in the last 75 years).
He's a Democrat, and Democrats have only won 3 of the last 10 presidential elections.
Hispanic voters, never having connected with Obama, could stay at home--or, if McCain is nominated, vote for him instead.
I hate to say it, but some people who say they'll vote for an African-American when they're polled don't actually vote for the man when they're in the polling booth. It may not be true racism, just some kind of subconscious reaction, but it is a factor.
He has a connection to the recently-indicted Mr. Rezco and that minor drug incident in his history, both of which could be used by Republican candidates. He also has to explain his string of "present, not voting" entries in the Illinois legislature.
He holds a position on immigration that a Republican candidate could use against him. (I personally like his position on immigration, of course, but I'm in the minority.) In fact, his voting record in the Senate is more liberal than Sen. Clinton's, which could prove challenging when it comes to his wish to be seen as a unifier.
Total Handicap: 0
To Obama's advantage:
He is an amazing orator. If he's nominated, his acceptance speech is likely to echo in people's hearts for a long time. When even Rush Limbaugh throws compliments his way, you know we have a rare speaker.
Given the historic nature of this election, African-American turnout would be extremely high, making a big difference in "Swing" states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Additionally, his message resonates in the South, which has been out of Democratic hands lately.
He has a good "storyline" about his personal life, well-documented in his book.
He's young, which compliments his message of hope nicely.
He can raise large amounts of money.
He attracts people to vote for the first time.
He attracts votes from independents and even some Republicans.
The media's love for him to some degree insulates him from negative campaigning. He's the new teflon man.
To Obama's disadvantage:
He's from a state that's already "Blue," depriving him of a "native son" boost.
He a senator, and America doesn't like electing senators president (only twice in the last 75 years).
He's a Democrat, and Democrats have only won 3 of the last 10 presidential elections.
Hispanic voters, never having connected with Obama, could stay at home--or, if McCain is nominated, vote for him instead.
I hate to say it, but some people who say they'll vote for an African-American when they're polled don't actually vote for the man when they're in the polling booth. It may not be true racism, just some kind of subconscious reaction, but it is a factor.
He has a connection to the recently-indicted Mr. Rezco and that minor drug incident in his history, both of which could be used by Republican candidates. He also has to explain his string of "present, not voting" entries in the Illinois legislature.
He holds a position on immigration that a Republican candidate could use against him. (I personally like his position on immigration, of course, but I'm in the minority.) In fact, his voting record in the Senate is more liberal than Sen. Clinton's, which could prove challenging when it comes to his wish to be seen as a unifier.
Total Handicap: 0
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Handicapping McCain
Okay, back to it. John McCain is easy to write too much about, but I'll try to be brief.
To McCain's Advantage
McCain is a war hero. Double that; he's a war hero and we're essentially a nation at war.
McCain has more experience than Clinton and Obama combined.
McCain is from the southwest, which should help solidify that part of the map.
McCain stuck to his guns about Iraq and was proven correct. This might make people more willing to trust him on other issues where they disagree. He has a reputation for sticking to his guns, as it were, and Americans like decisiveness in a president.
He draws from independents and Democrats, partially due to his moderate views. Traditionally, nominees become president by swinging to the center (the 2004 race excepted), and McCain actually is a centrist.
He's a Republican, and 7 of the last 10 presidential elections have gone to the Republicans.
He's clashed enough with Bush to provide "plausible denial" when the Democrats try to link him to the unpopular president.
He's already been "vetted," and it's unlikely that any more negative information about him will come out than is already known.
To McCain's Disadvantage
McCain may be vulnerable on ethics (and negative ads) due to his involvement in the Keating Five incident.
He's a senator, and Americans don't like electing senators president.
Many elements of the far right haven't yet forgiven him for championing campaign finance reform (which they feel put pro-life groups at a disadvantage), partnering with Ted Kennedy on immigration reform, opposing the Bush tax cuts, opposing torture for suspected terrorists (like, why is this even an issue?), or supporting embryonic stem cell funding. Taken together, this could cause problems when it comes to mustering turnout, especially if a third party mounts a Buchanan-like challenge from the Right (unlikely, but possible).
Republican turnout has been depressed this year.
He's had some fundraising problem, especially compared to Clinton and Obama.
The man is 72, and that makes some people nervous.
The nation is in danger of a recession, which always works against the party holding the presidency.
His penchant for proclaiming unpleasant truths could get him in trouble, as it recently did in Michigan. Mondale's honesty (saying he'd raise taxes, for example) got him the worst drubbing in the history of politics. Some people want hope, not facts.
Total Handicap: -1 point
Next, Obama.
To McCain's Advantage
McCain is a war hero. Double that; he's a war hero and we're essentially a nation at war.
McCain has more experience than Clinton and Obama combined.
McCain is from the southwest, which should help solidify that part of the map.
McCain stuck to his guns about Iraq and was proven correct. This might make people more willing to trust him on other issues where they disagree. He has a reputation for sticking to his guns, as it were, and Americans like decisiveness in a president.
He draws from independents and Democrats, partially due to his moderate views. Traditionally, nominees become president by swinging to the center (the 2004 race excepted), and McCain actually is a centrist.
He's a Republican, and 7 of the last 10 presidential elections have gone to the Republicans.
He's clashed enough with Bush to provide "plausible denial" when the Democrats try to link him to the unpopular president.
He's already been "vetted," and it's unlikely that any more negative information about him will come out than is already known.
To McCain's Disadvantage
McCain may be vulnerable on ethics (and negative ads) due to his involvement in the Keating Five incident.
He's a senator, and Americans don't like electing senators president.
Many elements of the far right haven't yet forgiven him for championing campaign finance reform (which they feel put pro-life groups at a disadvantage), partnering with Ted Kennedy on immigration reform, opposing the Bush tax cuts, opposing torture for suspected terrorists (like, why is this even an issue?), or supporting embryonic stem cell funding. Taken together, this could cause problems when it comes to mustering turnout, especially if a third party mounts a Buchanan-like challenge from the Right (unlikely, but possible).
Republican turnout has been depressed this year.
He's had some fundraising problem, especially compared to Clinton and Obama.
The man is 72, and that makes some people nervous.
The nation is in danger of a recession, which always works against the party holding the presidency.
His penchant for proclaiming unpleasant truths could get him in trouble, as it recently did in Michigan. Mondale's honesty (saying he'd raise taxes, for example) got him the worst drubbing in the history of politics. Some people want hope, not facts.
Total Handicap: -1 point
Next, Obama.
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