Handicapping Clinton

I've decided that before going at the match-ups, I'd better review the candidates themselves.

To Clinton's advantage:
Voter turnout among Democratic women should be very high, given the historic nature of the election. She has also shown the ability to connect to Hispanic voters, a trait that will help with picking off states in the Southwest.

She's likely to be competitive in Arkansas, a pick-up necessary in electoral college computations.

The economy is in danger of recession at this point, and that always works in favor of the party that not holding the presidency.

The Iraq war may have dwindled in importance at this point, but certainly the many who list opposition to it as a big factor will vote for Clinton.

She and her husband are experts at negative campaigning. If it's there, they'll dig it.

Contrarywise, she's already been thoroughly "vetted" herself. She's a known quantity. If we don't know it by now, we're just too young to have heard it the first time.

Finally, turnout has been good for Democratic primaries this year, which bodes will for Democrats in general.

To Clinton's disadvantage:
Clinton has the highest negatives of any of the four major contenders (Clinton, McCain, Obama, Romney). Many people who aren't even registered to vote would suddenly become campaign volunteers in order to ensure her defeat.

Obama and Edwards have successfully painted her as the "champion of the status quo" in several debates, and we should expect the Republican nominee to do the same.

Clinton's campaign hasn't done itself any favors with the way it's handled African-American voters in general or Obama in particular this go-around, and there's a serious risk that many of them will stay at home or jump ship.

Clinton's views on immigration leave her vulnerable to attack. I will not agree with those attacks, but they'll come.

She's a senator, and America doesn't elect many of them president.

She's a Democrat, and Democrats have won only 3 of the last 10 presidential elections.

Finally, Clinton herself isn't making all that many mis-statements, but her husband sure is. 'Nuff said about that.

Total handicap: -2 points.

Next, McCain.