Showing posts with label Huckabee; Obama; presidential election; media. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Huckabee; Obama; presidential election; media. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Something odd going on

I don't understand what the media are doing. Time and again, I read that Obama is the new frontrunner after winning Iowa by 8 points, but I also read that McCain seems to be the new frontrunner after--uh, placing fourth in Iowa and polling high in New Hampshire? What happened to Huckabee, who won Iowa by 9? He has "limited appeal," I read in article after article.

It is with much amusement that I note that the people giving these analyses never cite polls. What do the current polls actually reveal?

On the Democratic side, two of the the three most recent U.S. polls show Clinton twenty or twenty-two points ahead of Obama. And Obama is the frontrunner. Interesting math. (The other shows them tied.)

On the Republican side, the math is more complicated:

USA Today AP-Yahoo Pew
Huckabee 25 22 17
McCain 19 14 22
Guliani 20 21 20

So McCain is on top in one of three polls, but in third place in the other two, where Huckabee is in first place, nationally. And yet he has "limited appeal," say the pundits.

I don't have an answer to why this is going on; I only observe it. Any ideas?