Okay, back to it. John McCain is easy to write too much about, but I'll try to be brief.
To McCain's Advantage
McCain is a war hero. Double that; he's a war hero and we're essentially a nation at war.
McCain has more experience than Clinton and Obama combined.
McCain is from the southwest, which should help solidify that part of the map.
McCain stuck to his guns about Iraq and was proven correct. This might make people more willing to trust him on other issues where they disagree. He has a reputation for sticking to his guns, as it were, and Americans like decisiveness in a president.
He draws from independents and Democrats, partially due to his moderate views. Traditionally, nominees become president by swinging to the center (the 2004 race excepted), and McCain actually is a centrist.
He's a Republican, and 7 of the last 10 presidential elections have gone to the Republicans.
He's clashed enough with Bush to provide "plausible denial" when the Democrats try to link him to the unpopular president.
He's already been "vetted," and it's unlikely that any more negative information about him will come out than is already known.
To McCain's Disadvantage
McCain may be vulnerable on ethics (and negative ads) due to his involvement in the Keating Five incident.
He's a senator, and Americans don't like electing senators president.
Many elements of the far right haven't yet forgiven him for championing campaign finance reform (which they feel put pro-life groups at a disadvantage), partnering with Ted Kennedy on immigration reform, opposing the Bush tax cuts, opposing torture for suspected terrorists (like, why is this even an issue?), or supporting embryonic stem cell funding. Taken together, this could cause problems when it comes to mustering turnout, especially if a third party mounts a Buchanan-like challenge from the Right (unlikely, but possible).
Republican turnout has been depressed this year.
He's had some fundraising problem, especially compared to Clinton and Obama.
The man is 72, and that makes some people nervous.
The nation is in danger of a recession, which always works against the party holding the presidency.
His penchant for proclaiming unpleasant truths could get him in trouble, as it recently did in Michigan. Mondale's honesty (saying he'd raise taxes, for example) got him the worst drubbing in the history of politics. Some people want hope, not facts.
Total Handicap: -1 point
Next, Obama.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Monday, January 28, 2008
Overheard
Myxl in the middle of extemporizing a story to Zorg: "... and he has the same intelligence as if his braaaaaaiin [Myxl pauses for emphasis] ... were exactly the same size and shape as a hot dog!"
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Handicapping Clinton
I've decided that before going at the match-ups, I'd better review the candidates themselves.
To Clinton's advantage:
Voter turnout among Democratic women should be very high, given the historic nature of the election. She has also shown the ability to connect to Hispanic voters, a trait that will help with picking off states in the Southwest.
She's likely to be competitive in Arkansas, a pick-up necessary in electoral college computations.
The economy is in danger of recession at this point, and that always works in favor of the party that not holding the presidency.
The Iraq war may have dwindled in importance at this point, but certainly the many who list opposition to it as a big factor will vote for Clinton.
She and her husband are experts at negative campaigning. If it's there, they'll dig it.
Contrarywise, she's already been thoroughly "vetted" herself. She's a known quantity. If we don't know it by now, we're just too young to have heard it the first time.
Finally, turnout has been good for Democratic primaries this year, which bodes will for Democrats in general.
To Clinton's disadvantage:
Clinton has the highest negatives of any of the four major contenders (Clinton, McCain, Obama, Romney). Many people who aren't even registered to vote would suddenly become campaign volunteers in order to ensure her defeat.
Obama and Edwards have successfully painted her as the "champion of the status quo" in several debates, and we should expect the Republican nominee to do the same.
Clinton's campaign hasn't done itself any favors with the way it's handled African-American voters in general or Obama in particular this go-around, and there's a serious risk that many of them will stay at home or jump ship.
Clinton's views on immigration leave her vulnerable to attack. I will not agree with those attacks, but they'll come.
She's a senator, and America doesn't elect many of them president.
She's a Democrat, and Democrats have won only 3 of the last 10 presidential elections.
Finally, Clinton herself isn't making all that many mis-statements, but her husband sure is. 'Nuff said about that.
Total handicap: -2 points.
Next, McCain.
To Clinton's advantage:
Voter turnout among Democratic women should be very high, given the historic nature of the election. She has also shown the ability to connect to Hispanic voters, a trait that will help with picking off states in the Southwest.
She's likely to be competitive in Arkansas, a pick-up necessary in electoral college computations.
The economy is in danger of recession at this point, and that always works in favor of the party that not holding the presidency.
The Iraq war may have dwindled in importance at this point, but certainly the many who list opposition to it as a big factor will vote for Clinton.
She and her husband are experts at negative campaigning. If it's there, they'll dig it.
Contrarywise, she's already been thoroughly "vetted" herself. She's a known quantity. If we don't know it by now, we're just too young to have heard it the first time.
Finally, turnout has been good for Democratic primaries this year, which bodes will for Democrats in general.
To Clinton's disadvantage:
Clinton has the highest negatives of any of the four major contenders (Clinton, McCain, Obama, Romney). Many people who aren't even registered to vote would suddenly become campaign volunteers in order to ensure her defeat.
Obama and Edwards have successfully painted her as the "champion of the status quo" in several debates, and we should expect the Republican nominee to do the same.
Clinton's campaign hasn't done itself any favors with the way it's handled African-American voters in general or Obama in particular this go-around, and there's a serious risk that many of them will stay at home or jump ship.
Clinton's views on immigration leave her vulnerable to attack. I will not agree with those attacks, but they'll come.
She's a senator, and America doesn't elect many of them president.
She's a Democrat, and Democrats have won only 3 of the last 10 presidential elections.
Finally, Clinton herself isn't making all that many mis-statements, but her husband sure is. 'Nuff said about that.
Total handicap: -2 points.
Next, McCain.
Handicapping
It's pretty clear by now that the Democratic nominee will be (using alphabetical order) either Clinton or Obama. It's similarly clear that the Republican nominee will be either McCain or Romney. That leaves four possible match-ups:
A) Clinton v. McCain
B) Clinton v. Romney
C) Obama v. McCain
D) Obama v. Romney
Over the next few days (who knows? Maybe even today), I'll post my analysis of these four races. Admittedly, we don't know VP candidates yet (though Huckabee does seem to have a 50-50 shot as McCain's #2), but that will probably even out in the end.
A) Clinton v. McCain
B) Clinton v. Romney
C) Obama v. McCain
D) Obama v. Romney
Over the next few days (who knows? Maybe even today), I'll post my analysis of these four races. Admittedly, we don't know VP candidates yet (though Huckabee does seem to have a 50-50 shot as McCain's #2), but that will probably even out in the end.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Little Things, try this movie!
This movie took me completely by surprise. Given the title, I had been expecting a high-handedly preachy movie. Nothing doing. Yes, the lead character is a Christian, but it's such an important part of his personality that one never feels lectured at or "finger-wagged." It's simply who he is.
This is the story of British parliamentarian William Wilberforce, who, in the late 1700's and early 1800's, led the drive to end the slave trade. Compelling acting, a gripping plot, a firm basis in history, and beautiful period sets/costuming. Wonderful supporting characters, each of whom, you get the sense, could actually support their own movie themselves. Definitely the best movie I saw in 2007.
Some of these kinds of movies are what my better half calls "spinach movies," films you watch because they're good for you, not because you'll enjoy them. Not this one. Humor, romance, pathos--everything but swordplay. Truly a great movie, as even my spinach-movie-avoiding spouse agreed. Tell me what you think.
Patience
Last time I saw my spiritual director (a funny guy up at the Dominican House of Studies), he made a very interesting point.
I asked him, "Father, as far as I know, the word patience just means, 'Not outwardly showing one's impatience.' If that's so, than how is patience compatible with joy?"
Father cocked his head in consideration. After a few moments, I asked, "Do we need to get back to this one next month?"
He answered, "Yeah, I think so. But I will tell you this: I do know that impatience is not compatible with joy." After a brief anecdote illustrating the point, we discussed some of the saints, and in every case where joy was one of their gifts, we found superhuman patience with it (St. Dominic, of course, being a prominent example). But which proceeds from which--the joy from patience, or vice-versa? Or is it a simple correlation? Father promised to do more research into patience (and joy) and get back to me next month.
When I got home, I took it upon myself to do some research myself. I found this definition of patience in John Harden's Pocket Catholic Dictionary (copyright 1985):
"A form of the moral virtue of fortitude. It enables one to endure present evils without sadness or resentment in conformity with the will of God. Patience is mainly concerned with bearing the evils caused by another. The three grades of patience are: to bear difficulties without interior complaint, to use hardships in order to make progress in virtue, and even to desire the cross and afflictions out of love for God and accept them with spiritual joy. (Etym. Latin patientia, patience, endurance; from patiens, suffering.)"
Wow--I'm at zero-for-three, there. Joy, on the other hand, is one of the "fruits of the Spirit," which means that it's a product, not the source; an end, not a means.
End analysis: If you want joy, work for patience! Impatience is not compatible with joy.
Now, uh, how exactly do I avoid that "interior complaint" that dictionary mentioned? That might be, well, kind of tricky . . .
I asked him, "Father, as far as I know, the word patience just means, 'Not outwardly showing one's impatience.' If that's so, than how is patience compatible with joy?"
Father cocked his head in consideration. After a few moments, I asked, "Do we need to get back to this one next month?"
He answered, "Yeah, I think so. But I will tell you this: I do know that impatience is not compatible with joy." After a brief anecdote illustrating the point, we discussed some of the saints, and in every case where joy was one of their gifts, we found superhuman patience with it (St. Dominic, of course, being a prominent example). But which proceeds from which--the joy from patience, or vice-versa? Or is it a simple correlation? Father promised to do more research into patience (and joy) and get back to me next month.
When I got home, I took it upon myself to do some research myself. I found this definition of patience in John Harden's Pocket Catholic Dictionary (copyright 1985):
"A form of the moral virtue of fortitude. It enables one to endure present evils without sadness or resentment in conformity with the will of God. Patience is mainly concerned with bearing the evils caused by another. The three grades of patience are: to bear difficulties without interior complaint, to use hardships in order to make progress in virtue, and even to desire the cross and afflictions out of love for God and accept them with spiritual joy. (Etym. Latin patientia, patience, endurance; from patiens, suffering.)"
Wow--I'm at zero-for-three, there. Joy, on the other hand, is one of the "fruits of the Spirit," which means that it's a product, not the source; an end, not a means.
End analysis: If you want joy, work for patience! Impatience is not compatible with joy.
Now, uh, how exactly do I avoid that "interior complaint" that dictionary mentioned? That might be, well, kind of tricky . . .
Great Huckabee quote
From the Republican debate January 25:
"The fact is, this country has always been a country where people were able to respect people who had faith. And frankly, we ought to be able to respect people who don't have any. I mean, I don't feel like a person has to share my faith to share my love of this country. But if a person hates me or dislikes me because of my faith, I'm not sure if they understand what it means to truly be an American, where we can live with each other no matter how different our faith is."
Love it.
"The fact is, this country has always been a country where people were able to respect people who had faith. And frankly, we ought to be able to respect people who don't have any. I mean, I don't feel like a person has to share my faith to share my love of this country. But if a person hates me or dislikes me because of my faith, I'm not sure if they understand what it means to truly be an American, where we can live with each other no matter how different our faith is."
Love it.
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