A good night in Iowa

Well, if Obama and Huckabee go all the way, we'll have the most polite general election campaign in a century.


I'm on record as having supported Obama and Huckabee for quite a while. Both face huge obstacles on the road to the nomination, but both have thin paths that might just come to pass:



OBAMA

Wins New Hampshire Jan 8; loses Michigan Jan 15 and Nevada Jan 19. Edwards then drops out. Obama then becomes the anti-Clinton and sweeps South Carolina 1/26, Florida 1/29, and a majority of states in 2/5's mega-primary. Clinton, though winning large states like California and New York, loses the delegate count to Obama, who squeaks through and wins the nomination.



HUCKABEE

Comes in third in New Hampshire Jan 8. Virtually ties McCain in Michigan Jan. 15, with Romney coming in third. Romney drops out. Virtual tie between Huckabee and Guliani in Nevada Jan. 19. Huckabee wins South Carolina Jan. 26, and Thompson drops out. Huckabee wins Florida Jan. 29 hands-down. At that point, the 2/5 mega-primary kicks in: Guliani wins NY and NJ, but McCain (helped by endorsements from the departing Thompson) and Huckabee each earn more delegates than Guliani does on that day, and Guliani drops out. With a bit of luck (especially if he wins CA), Huckabee can stave off McCain long enough to win the nomination.

Very tricky, and a lot of if's.

I still haven't figured out who Romney endorses when he leaves.

By the way, I repudiate what I said about Romney possibly being Huck's VP pick. There may be too much bad blood by now. Maybe McCain himself?