Handicapping McCain

Okay, back to it. John McCain is easy to write too much about, but I'll try to be brief.

To McCain's Advantage
McCain is a war hero. Double that; he's a war hero and we're essentially a nation at war.

McCain has more experience than Clinton and Obama combined.

McCain is from the southwest, which should help solidify that part of the map.

McCain stuck to his guns about Iraq and was proven correct. This might make people more willing to trust him on other issues where they disagree. He has a reputation for sticking to his guns, as it were, and Americans like decisiveness in a president.

He draws from independents and Democrats, partially due to his moderate views. Traditionally, nominees become president by swinging to the center (the 2004 race excepted), and McCain actually is a centrist.

He's a Republican, and 7 of the last 10 presidential elections have gone to the Republicans.

He's clashed enough with Bush to provide "plausible denial" when the Democrats try to link him to the unpopular president.

He's already been "vetted," and it's unlikely that any more negative information about him will come out than is already known.

To McCain's Disadvantage
McCain may be vulnerable on ethics (and negative ads) due to his involvement in the Keating Five incident.

He's a senator, and Americans don't like electing senators president.

Many elements of the far right haven't yet forgiven him for championing campaign finance reform (which they feel put pro-life groups at a disadvantage), partnering with Ted Kennedy on immigration reform, opposing the Bush tax cuts, opposing torture for suspected terrorists (like, why is this even an issue?), or supporting embryonic stem cell funding. Taken together, this could cause problems when it comes to mustering turnout, especially if a third party mounts a Buchanan-like challenge from the Right (unlikely, but possible).

Republican turnout has been depressed this year.

He's had some fundraising problem, especially compared to Clinton and Obama.

The man is 72, and that makes some people nervous.

The nation is in danger of a recession, which always works against the party holding the presidency.

His penchant for proclaiming unpleasant truths could get him in trouble, as it recently did in Michigan. Mondale's honesty (saying he'd raise taxes, for example) got him the worst drubbing in the history of politics. Some people want hope, not facts.

Total Handicap: -1 point

Next, Obama.