What does Barack Obama he bring to the table?
To Obama's advantage:
He is an amazing orator. If he's nominated, his acceptance speech is likely to echo in people's hearts for a long time. When even Rush Limbaugh throws compliments his way, you know we have a rare speaker.
Given the historic nature of this election, African-American turnout would be extremely high, making a big difference in "Swing" states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Additionally, his message resonates in the South, which has been out of Democratic hands lately.
He has a good "storyline" about his personal life, well-documented in his book.
He's young, which compliments his message of hope nicely.
He can raise large amounts of money.
He attracts people to vote for the first time.
He attracts votes from independents and even some Republicans.
The media's love for him to some degree insulates him from negative campaigning. He's the new teflon man.
To Obama's disadvantage:
He's from a state that's already "Blue," depriving him of a "native son" boost.
He a senator, and America doesn't like electing senators president (only twice in the last 75 years).
He's a Democrat, and Democrats have only won 3 of the last 10 presidential elections.
Hispanic voters, never having connected with Obama, could stay at home--or, if McCain is nominated, vote for him instead.
I hate to say it, but some people who say they'll vote for an African-American when they're polled don't actually vote for the man when they're in the polling booth. It may not be true racism, just some kind of subconscious reaction, but it is a factor.
He has a connection to the recently-indicted Mr. Rezco and that minor drug incident in his history, both of which could be used by Republican candidates. He also has to explain his string of "present, not voting" entries in the Illinois legislature.
He holds a position on immigration that a Republican candidate could use against him. (I personally like his position on immigration, of course, but I'm in the minority.) In fact, his voting record in the Senate is more liberal than Sen. Clinton's, which could prove challenging when it comes to his wish to be seen as a unifier.
Total Handicap: 0
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2 comments:
re. the drug thing - our current president abused cocaine and is an alcoholic. if bush can get past those favors, i imagine obama will too.
i love me some obama!!
As you read in my "matchups" section, I feel that if Obama gets the nomination, he gets the presidency. His weaknesses, as you point out, are too slight in comparison with the political landscape right now.
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