Matchups

Okay, now that I've dissected all four major candidates, here's what I see. This DOES NOT COUNT Vice Presidential candidates (for which a fascinating list of possibilities can be found here).

While looking at my predictions, keep in mind that I'd officially predicted that Romney would drop out if he lost both Iowa and New Hampshire, and I was wrong about that.

Clinton v. McCain: McCain wins, with virtually the same electoral map as 2004. Not so much that people love McCain, but that they're too nervous about Clinton.

Clinton v. Romney: Toss-up; too hard to call. What do you do when no one (except a small 20% base on either side) likes either candidate? We're back to Bush v. Kerry, each side playing to the base instead of the center, leaving most Americans disspirited.

Obama v. McCain: Obama. Hit the American people with the choices of either hope or truth? Hope wins every time. (That's not a knock on Obama; it's just part of their slogans.) But it'd be a great race, and one I'd love to watch.

Obama v. Romney: Obama in a landslide that includes many states from the South and the Southwest, breaking up the electoral map the Republicans had held for so long.

A lot could change between now and November--Vice presidential candidates, at a minimum--but this is what I see right now.